Recommit to the American ideal by embracing Iceberg Demographics

This is the third article in a series about Iceberg Demographics and how to manage new realities regarding inclusion in the workplace. You can read the first article and second article here.

White House Executive Orders (EOs) curtailing immigration and dismantling DEI will dramatically alter the size, composition and geographic distribution of the U.S. population, as well as the workforce, talent pipelines, consumer markets and future population growth. The implications for the nation’s future competitiveness in an ever-changing global marketplace are both far-ranging and daunting, as we note here.

Threats to our demography

Owing to normal age-related mortality, premature deaths of despair, declining fertility and most recently absolute White population decline, the U.S. has been on a progressively slowing annual rate of population growth trajectory since 1960. Immigrants and people of color have been principally responsible for the nation’s net absolute population growth over the past six decades, a trend popularly referred to as the “browning” of America.

Heightened deportations and constraints on future international migration therefore will further slow the annual rate of population growth. Making matters worse, if the federal government shuts down immigration, the U.S. will begin experiencing absolute population decline as early as 2026, according to Census Bureau population projections.

Further complicating matters, dismantling DEI programs and practices when immigrants and people of color are not only driving growth but also transforming the workforce and consumer markets is a highly questionable strategy, particularly if the often-stated goal is to win the war for the world’s best talent and drive innovation in the hyper-competitive and ever-changing global marketplace.  

A data-informed response

Pushing back  on the anti-immigration and anti-DEI sentiments enveloping our country, we believe we can achieve greatness and live up to the American Ideal of fairness, justice and economic opportunity for all by embracing our nation’s Iceberg Demographics as a talent management strategy. That is, by leveraging our collective personal and household-level demographics, which are not visible in daily interactions in workplaces and other institutions where we live, study, play and engage in other activities. Much like the 90 percent of a freshwater iceberg submerged beneath the water line and therefore invisible to the naked eye.

At this link we offer selected examples of Iceberg Demographics. Here we extract data from the Census Bureau’s new monthly Household Trends and Outlook Plus Survey (HTOPS) that highlight “invisible” workforce barriers and constraints. HTOPS is a longitudinal survey of a panel of U.S. households, randomly selected from more than 75,000 addresses across the nation, which is conducted monthly to measure “emergent social and economic matters facing U.S. households.”

An Iceberg Demographic example

The U.S. working age population (18 and older), according to HTOPS,  faces four types of iceberg demographic workforce and workplace challenges: Physical limitations, cognitive issues, economic vulnerabilities and caregiving constraints, which are discussed in detail at this link. We limit attention here to cognition risks, defined as “problems with a person’s ability to think, learn, remember, use judgement and make decisions,”  which generated the highest frequencies in the February 2025 HTOPS.

Cognition issues do not necessarily manifest in personal and professional interactions and therefore align with our Iceberg Demographic metaphor. Among the U.S. working age population (261.3 million):

• Slightly over half reported “being bothered by feeling nervous, anxious, or on edge” (133 million).
• More than a third disclosed experiencing loneliness (99 million), which can lead to unhealthy coping mechanisms or behaviors like “excessive alcohol consumption, smoking and substance abuse,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  
• Thirty eight percent divulged “feeling down, depressed or hopeless” (90 million).
• More than forty percent confessed “being unable to stop or control worrying” (107 million).
• Approximately one third acknowledged “difficulty remembering or concentrating”(89 million).
• And 14 percent admitted “difficulty communicating, that is, understanding or being understood” (18 million).

Many of those so affected are employed, even if their afflictions prevent them from giving their best effort on the job.

Moreover, consistent with our Iceberg Demographic frame, these challenges cut across group identities that constitute the visible aspects of the nation’s demographic diversity: Race, ethnicity and sex. Identities that, more poignantly, have been targeted in both White House efforts to dismantle DEI and Supreme Court decisions decimating affirmative action and reproductive rights.

Take, for example, the ninety-nine million - 38 percent of the U.S. working age population - that admitted “feeling down, depressed, or hopeless” in the two weeks prior to the HTOPS in February 2025. This group included well over one-third of working age Whites (fifty-nine million), Hispanics (seventeen million) and Blacks (twelve million); Forty percent of Asians (six million); and close to 60 percent of members of other race/ethnic groups (five million). And 35 percent of male (forty-four million) and 41 percent of female (fifty-five million) survey respondents expressed such feelings, as Table 1 shows.

Table 1: Percent of working age population feeling depressed by race/ethnicity and sex

Race/ethnicity

Sex

Source: HTOPS, February 2025

Compared to their distributions in the U.S. working age population, Asians, members of other race/ethnic groups and women were overrepresented, and Hispanics and men were slightly under-represented in the “feeling down, depressed and hopeless” group. Whites and Blacks were represented on par with their respective distributions in the U.S. working age population, as Table 2 illustrates.

Table 2: Distribution of working age and depressed working age population by race/ethnicity and sex, 2025

Race/ethnicity

Sex

Source: HTOPS, February 2025

Bottom line: If organizations address these widespread cognition issues and other iceberg demographic constraints, we, as a nation, can maintain visible diversity in workplaces and other societal institutions.

Concluding thoughts and recommendations

In today’s highly polarized society, we must eradicate divisions created and orchestrated based on the visible aspects of the nation’s increasing demographic diversity. At the same time, we must strive to recreate a civil society by strategically building on the invisible ties that bind us together and dismantling the “isms,” stereotypes, phobias and fearmongering that currently drive us apart.

Understanding how iceberg demographics impact the workforce and workplaces is a good place to start. Though largely hidden from public view, a significant segment of the U.S. working age population, as we have shown here and elsewhere, suffers from cognition challenges, which can affect work performance and may lead to voluntary exits or forced terminations, absent appropriate accommodations.

We have developed a data-driven strategy HR professionals can use to create policies, practices, procedures and accommodations that specifically address cognition issues and other Iceberg Demographic workforce barriers and workplace constraints. Because these “hidden” challenges intersect with race, ethnicity, sex and other visible demographic characteristics, as documented in this research, the proposed strategy, properly executed with empathy and compassion, will not only create a keen sense of belonging for existing employees but also serve as a magnet for new talent recruitment. Moreover, albeit indirectly, it will amplify visible workplace diversity and rekindle in the process a strong belief in the American ideal of fairness, justice and economic opportunity for all.

James H. Johnson, Jr. is the William Rand Kenan, Jr. Distinguished Professor of strategy and entrepreneurship in UNC-Chapel Hill’s Kenan-Flagler Business School. 

Stephen J. Appold is a Senior Research Associate in the Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise’s Urban Investment Strategies Center.

Jeanne Milliken Bonds is a Professor of Practice, Impact Investing and Sustainable Finance, at UNC-Chapel Hill’s Kenan-Flagler Business School. 

Join the global human resources online community

Join HR Exchange Network today and interact with a vibrant network of professionals, keeping up to date with the industry by accessing our wealth of articles, videos, live conferences and more.

Join Now