Preserving U.S. demography in 2026

Carefully crafted policies that address threats to our nation’s demography are urgently needed in 2026. Following slowing rates of annual growth over the past several decades, the U.S. is now facing impending absolute population decline—a first in the nation’s history. Declining fertility, population aging, age-related mortality, premature deaths of despair, constraints imposed on international migration, and heightened deportation of immigrants are among the major forces responsible for this unprecedented demographic transformation.

For the U.S. workforce, workplaces, and consumer markets, the implications are far-ranging. Most immediately, and notwithstanding the growing role of AI in organizations, impending population decline poses serious challenges for HR leaders and managers striving to recruit, retain, and sustain a viable and productive workforce. Longer term, it raises fundamental questions about our nation’s ability to remain competitive and attractive as a place to live, work, play, and do business in an ever-changing and increasingly volatile global business environment.

To restore the nation’s demographic vitality, support talent development and management, and maintain U.S. competitiveness, we must:

• Recognize the pivotal role that immigration—a major driver of population growth over the past six decades--must continue to play in U.S. society. A fair and just immigration policy is a strategic imperative for the nation’s current economic vitality, future growth, and prosperity.
• Acknowledge and embrace the competitive advantage that our immigration-driven population diversity affords us in the global marketplace. Contrary to ongoing efforts to summarily dismantle DEI programs, research confirms our diversity enhances creativity and the nation’s innovation capacity.
• Display greater empathy and compassion in talent recruitment, development, management, and retention, especially given the adverse impacts of ongoing turbulence and uncertainty on U.S. individuals and households. To do so, organizations should conduct pulse surveys, similar to the Census Bureau’s monthly Household Trends and Outlook Pulse Survey (HTOPS), to  assess the nature and frequency of issues and challenges that employees face in their daily lives ---issues that affect workplace morale and performance; and leverage the survey results to create data-driven HR strategies and policies that boost employee recruitment, enhance employee development, and reduce worker turnover.
• Aggressively pursuing these strategies and tactics, as we have asserted elsewhere, will demonstrate the nation’s recommitment to the American Ideal of fairness, justice, and economic opportunity for all. And it will do so in what otherwise likely will be a politically challenging environment in 2026.

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