Plans Based On Average Assumptions Are Wrong, On Average!



Ian Davidson
06/11/2013

As a reward specialist, I am asked questions like, "What is our pay inflation going to be next year?" I used to go away, do research and say 2.4 percent - having used the historic average. Of course it was never exactly 2.4 percent so my boss would turn round and say – "but Ian, you said it was going to be 2.4 percent-- you’re fired." If asked the same question now, I respond with an answer; "there is a 50 percent probability that it will be 2.4 percent; but there is as 10 perce...
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